Angels Dust

I haven’t been posting much lately, mostly because I’m

a) busy writing my thesis (again)

b) busy with work

c) trying to keep the At Homeplate Blog alive

So I will only sporadically post here when something comes to my mind that I could not post over at AHP. (BTW, check out this play by former Angels captain Darin Erstad!)

At least I’m able to watch more Angels games live now that I can open MLB.TV in an external player while working!

Plus I’m seriously thinking about whether I can get to Anaheim in 2010 for the All-Star Game. Boy that would be something!!!

So pay me a visit over at the AHP Blog and leave a comment to I get the illusion someone is actually reading my lousy posts.

Go Angels!

Good to see the Angels start the second half on a positive note after the pre-All-Star slump, although Kelvim Escobar was robbed of a deserved win yesterday.

However, I’m sorry for the recent lack of updates, but I had a seminar a few days ago and exams are coming up in less than a fortnight, not to forget the regular work, and so I’m pretty busy right now and I don’t have enough leisure to write something at the moment.

So for all of you that are not regular readers of At Homeplate (Shame on you!), I will now link to an article I wrote some time ago about measuring a manager’s decisions to steal and bunt late in a game by win probability added. Although the peg is Dave Roberts’ steal in the ALCS in 2004, it also looks at Erick Aybar’s infamous game ending caught stealing(s). Not particularly original, but I guess it’s still better than not posting anything at all. So here you go:

The Steal & the Bunt
I do not know what someone who has been living baseball his or her whole life is thinking about when I speak of “THE STEAL”, but for someone like me, who has been watching American baseball for only four years now (thanks to the wonders of the internet), it can only mean Dave Roberts’ steal against the Yankees in game four of the 2004 ALCS.
Click here to read the complete article

As the Chronicler said, it’s difficult to find something to write about when the “team is playing well and there’s nothing to complain about”.
After losing the last game against the Twins in a very disappointing way - on a Nick Punto jack (his first one of the season) after OC failed to turn a double play and errored instead (one of the greatest things about the English language is that you can turn every noun into a verb!) - the Angels fell behind 0-4 against St. Louis early, but bounced back big to take the game 10-6. In the early innings, the game unpleasantly reminded me of last year, when the Angels hacked away against a subpar pitcher, failing to come through with a clutch hit when they finally managed to put some men on. But those days finally seem to be behind us. Even though they were out-homered 3-0, they outhit the Cardinals 17-12 and, unheard of last year, even out-walked them 6-1. Especially those five walks drawn against starter Kip Wells proved crucial in my opinion, because instead of cruizing to a quality start was gone after 5+ innings and 88 pitches and the Angels lit up the Cards’ relievers, especially Tyler Johnson (4 H, 4 R in 0+ IP) and Ryan Franklin (3 H, 2 R in 0.2 IP).
Bartolo Colon pitched like I expected he would after missing a start with triceps tendinitis, throwing reasonably hard, but missing his spots more often than not and giving up three long balls (I wonder what the front office is going to do if Colon continues his 2004 reminiscence as Saunders seems to be the better choice as long as Colon is not 100%). Both Daren Oliver and Hector Carrasco were able to pitch one no-hit, no-walk, no run inning apiece (Oliver actually striking out the side) and allowed the Angels to get back into the game. So all in all, if we ignore Colon’s outing for a second, a very nice win. Now I’m looking forward to see the Molina brothers stealing of each other.

Draft Day
Although I had never heard of any of those guys before the draft, let alone seen them play, I’m still quite happy about the Angels’ first two picks. Since the Angels are currently a relatively young team, they don’t need quick help at any position, so selecting some high ceiling high-school pitcher in Jonathan Bachanov with the first pick seems to be a good strategy to me. Another good choice was right hander Matthew Harvey, who dropped down to #118 because he is represented by Boras. I’m not a big fan of Boras and the fact that small market teams pass on talent because of signability concerns kind of contradicts the idea of the draft, but in the current environment, the Angels are advised to take advantage of their relatively deep pockets. After all, those signing bonuses are peanuts compared to a free agent contract nowadays. I would have rather seen more high-school picks in the following rounds, but as I understand it, later round high-school picks are unlikely to sign and what do I know anyway. Maybe Trevor Pippin, Andrew Romine or even Matthew Scioscia turn out to be the next hidden gem.

And one last thing: If nothing else, my Sports Weekly interview brought me a link in the current Link-O-Rama of the one and only Aaron Gleeman. That is so cool! Seriously, to me, that’s like the initiation rite of blogging or something. I only wish I had a more interesting post up at that time.

It combines two of my favorite pastimes:
Baseball And Bat

After a belt high inside 1-1 fastball that Miguel Tejada hit over the left field wall, John Lackey cruised through the next innings, giving up only three more hits and two walks. He struck out “only” four Orioles, but stayed in the game long enough for the Angels to finally launch a successful comeback thanks to a bases loaded single by Matthews Jr.* that followed an intentional BB to Vlad. Although Frankie allowed the tying run to reach scoring position on a hit and a stolen base in the ninth, he and Scot Shields held down the fort and secured Lackey’s major league leading ninth win. It might be a bit early to talk Cy Young, but you have to like Lackey’s chances right now. He’s also third in ERA in the AL (behind to the two Athletics Haren and Gaudin), so he would probably get it right now if the season ended today. But given the voters bias towards wins, the Red Sox’ Josh Beckett (8 Wins) and Cleveland’s Sabathia (8) are right on his heels and there is still plenty of time for some household names like Santana (6), Halladay (5), Schilling (5) to catch up as well as a surprise candidate to emerge (Haren, Carmona, Escobar - all 6 wins). However, it is probably a good time to check how a start in the All-Star game aligns with Lackey’s regular schedule.

In other news, I got my fifteen minutes seconds of fame when I appeared in a short interview in the current issue of USA Today’s Sports Weekly. Who would have guessed that my name is featured in a US newspaper without me ever having set my foot on American soil.

Now that I have finally taken the first step, I’m sure it’s only a matter of time until the job offer at Sports Illustrated arrives.

Since the original interview, conducted by USA Today intern Daniel Paulling, was shortened a bit and since it was so much fun to answer, here comes the full length version:

1) How long have you been blogging about the Angels and what made you start?
When I started to follow major league baseball, one of the first baseball websites I came across was Aaron Gleeman’s blog. I really liked how he used statistics to analyse players and to comment on mainstream media articles. I wanted to try that myself and set up my first blog in March 2005. Since I’m not a native speaker, I thought stats would help me overcome that language gap a bit. Statistics are still the main ingredient of my blog, but I try to actually “write” a little more now.

2) I know you’re from Germany. Why do you like the Angels?
Four years ago, I got my hands on the MVP Baseball 2003 game from EA Sports. The Angels had just won the World Series and they were the default team, so I played with them and got to know their names. That summer, I also discovered MLB.TV and started to watch Angels games since they were the only team I knew more than a couple of players on.

3) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Too long of a name or good marketing ploy?
Since I’m neither from Anaheim nor Los Angeles, I don’t really care about the name. Most of the time, people are just saying “LA Angels” now anyway. But if using “Los Angeles” in the team name really increases the Angels’ revenue by a couple of millions which in return helps signing a quality free agent or two, I’m all for it.

4) What’s the best move made by management in the last few seasons?
Between the disasters named Steve Finley, Jeff Weaver and Shea Hillenbrand, it’s easy to overlook the better decisions Bill Stoneman has made, like signing Justin Speier, extending Kelvim Escobar and NOT trading away the farm for Manny Ramirez. There hasn’t been any really spectacular moves since signing Vladimir Guerrero back in 2004 though.

5) You’ve been given control of the Angels. Who do you fire first? You can release any player on the 25-man roster. Who walks out the door?
Most Angels fans would say Shea Hillenbrand in a heartbeat, but I think Garret Anderson has become the biggest liability on the team because he refuses to walk and his average and power are both down because of all the injuries he suffered. However, GA is a franchise icon and his contract runs until 2008, so I would not release him, just reduce his role. Instead, I would show the door to hitting coach Mickey Hatcher and his hack-away philosophy.

6) Is Vlad Guerrero a Hall of Famer?
That depends on how well he ages. If he can keep up his current level of play for another three or maybe four years and then plays until he is 37, 38, he will have the numbers that the voters love: 500+ home runs and a .300+ batting average. But given his free swinging approach and history of back trouble, that is hardly a given.

7) Which youngster are you most excited to see in the major leagues?
I love how Howie Kendrick hits the ball on the line nearly every at-bat and I’m looking forward to Brandon Wood smacking long balls for the Angels, but right now, I’m most impressed by Reggie Willits. He’s something the Angels haven’t had in years: A lead-off hitter who is smart and patient at the plate and has a good eye.

8 ) Gary Matthews Jr. deal: Good or bad?
I have not forgotten Matthews’ poor showing in the HGH affair and I still think $50 millions for 5 years are way too much for too long, but nobody can deny what GMJ has done on the field so far, both defensively and offensively. If he keeps it up or at least does not slow down too much, the deal was not so bad after all.

9) How far do the Angels go this year?
I’m pretty confident that they will take the division with ease, but after that, I’m not that optimistic. Unless they bring in another bat via trade, the Angels’ pitching will not be enough for overcome the often punch-less offense in the play-offs when opponents consistently pitch around Vlad.

10) There’s a gun to your head. Do you become a Dodgers fan, an A’s fan, or pull the trigger?
There’s no way I ever become an Oakland fan, but since I’m not from Los Angeles and thanks to the conciliatory efforts by Rob McMillin of the 6-4-2 blog, I have no hard feelings towards the Dodgers. Becoming a Dodgers fan would also have the advantage that I could listen to Vin Scully instead of Steve Physioc and Rex Hudler when watching the games.

Ok, I could start whining about the fact that the only game I am able to watch live this week is a 0-12 blowout loss in which the Angels left the bases loaded twice (while I was still paying attention at least). Chone “Trade Bait” Figgins added another error to his resume, which at least helped Chris Bootcheck keeping his ERA under 4.00 despite allowing four runs after Ervin “No Magic” Santana fell apart quicker than a Trabbi in an off-road rally (no idea where that came from).
Speaking of Santana, unless Scioscia finds a way to exclusively use him at home, I don’t think there is any use in keeping him in the majors. Right now, his confidence is certainly shaken, so he steps on the mound already imtimidated, which can only result in a bad outing, which further undermines his confidence and so on, you get the picture. Let him pitch a few games in AAA, get a couple of wins on the road there and then let him come back.
Meanwhile, Joe Saunders is doing a fine in Salt Lake and really deserves another shot. He’s not exactly dominating hitters there, but his 4.30 ERA belies his periphals: 38 K in 37.2 IP with only 28 H and 10 BB. The only problem are the 5 long balls he has given up.

I’m off to a week-end trip tomorrow. I’ll meet with some friends in a holiday village in the mountains. The weather report predicts rain and thunderstorm for the next three days, so if you don’t hear anything from me ever again, you know what happened. Anyway, I expect the Angels to do well in the series against the Yankees since I’m not watching. Go Halos!

As you might have noticed, my blog has been down for quite a while.  The reason is that my parent site athomeplate.com had its hosting contract (unintentionally) cancelled. Once the contract issue was settled, the host was able to restore all AHP articles, but not the blog database. After waiting in vain for weeks to have the database restored, I have given up hope. It looks like I have to face the fact that all my articles are gone forever, which is quite frustrating. The only (very weak) consolation I have is the fact that I’m not the only one who lost all his work.

However, I have now moved my blog to my own new host and redone the design. I’m still associated with AHP though and will continue to write for them occasionally - did I mention I’m responsible for their new design? (Fishing for compliments here). More importantly, I will start blogging again this weekend. Hopefully the Angels will be out of their funk by then. Go Halos!